Another season of Red Sox baseball is upon us and the winds of change have swept through the organization. Out are the primary causes of 3 last place finishes in 4 seasons (Cherrington and Lucchino) and in come some fresh blood with some old ideas (Dombrowski). Will they work? It remains to be seen. There are currently 55 players coming to Spring Training and more than half of them already have no chance in hell of making the big league roster, but it will be interesting to see how they fare against big league competition or at worst, Triple A opposition. Let's see who will be joining us this season, in no particular rank.
1. David Ortiz
Big Papi has been the glue that has held the Red Sox together the past 13 seasons and he returns for his 14th and final. The 40 year old slugger has announced this will be his last season. If last year is any indication, he's still deadly at the plate at his advanced age. The problem the last 3 out of 4 seasons has been protection. Other than one year of Mike Napoli and Jonny Gomes and one month of Hanley Ramirez last April, he hasn't had the Manny Ramirez type to have his back with men on base. Big Papi has had to carry the load and at 40 years old, he shouldn't have to. Still, as long as he doesn't have a Peyton Manning-esque complete decline, he should be good for at least 25 home runs and 85 rbi's. Hopefully he can go out a winner one last time.
Odds to make the team - Lock
2. Dustin Pedroia
According to reports, both Dustin's wrists are healed for the first time since the 2012 season. What this means is his power stroke should return that helped him hit 10-15 home runs a season his first few years in the bigs. Unfortunately, his reckless style of play that earns him great respect is responsible for his career being cut short from injuries. If healthy, the former 2008 AL MVP should have enough left in the tank to be the valuable #3 hitter he was in 2013. If he can get on base and play as good as second base as he always has, there should be no worrying about him.
Odds to make the team - Lock
3. Xander Bogaerts
The X-Factor garnered some MVP votes last year and if he can continue to step up his game, he has a legitimate shot to take on Mike Trout in the MVP race. X-Man put on a hitting clinic last season proving that his sophomore slump in 2014 is long gone. When healthy he's a difference maker and he's vowed to improve his power stroke that left him in 2014. Whether or not his stroke returns isn't the problem, if healthy, he's an MVP type player.
Odds to make the team - Lock
4. Mookie Betts
Bogaerts is considered the next franchise player after Pedroia and Ortiz ride off, but Mookie Betts isn't far behind. Betts cut his teeth in 2014 and broke out in 2015. Now he has to take it to the next level. When healthy, he too can challenge Mike Trout for the MVP race. He can hit for power, field and run. The only thing he can't do is drive a golf cart. Bottom line is, if the top four players are healthy and productive, they can beat anyone.
Odds to make the team - Lock
5. Hanley Ramirez
The ultimate wild card on the Red Sox. Some people love him, some people hate him. There is no denying his talent. Still, the uncanny transformation into Manny Ramirez has left Hanley with all of Manny's old doubters. "He's a dog!" "He doesn't care!" "He's toxic in the clubhouse!" After the failed left field experiment last year, this year they're going to try him at first base. The underground belief is that they're going to try to hide him for one more year before he can take the DH spot from the retiring Ortiz. Until that happens, he's going to be a virtual nightmare at first base. Health concerns are always an issue and a decline is inevitable. Still, due to his massive contract, they will give him every shot to start this season. Hopefully his bat holds up.
Odds to make the team - Lock
6. Pablo Sandoval
One of the major disappointments of the 2015 season was the overweight Sandoval and his decline not only at the plate, but in the field as well. Initial reports are that he's lost weight this winter, but is he going to hold up the whole season? When healthy he's good for 15-20 home runs and a steady glove. Sox brass hope he can keep his weight down and return to 2010-14 form.
Odds to make the team - Lock
7. Blake Swihart
Going into last season, Sox fans hoped he'd lead the Pawtucket Red Sox to a repeat championship. Instead, injuries to Christian Vazquez and Ryan Hanigan opened the door for Swihart to become a starter in Boston and he did not disappoint. He overcame a slow start and then tore up the majors from July to September. He'll be slotted as the starting catcher to begin the season barring injury. If he can duplicate the end of the season last year into a whole season, the revolving door at catcher the past 4 years will be over.
Odds to make the team - Lock
8. Rusney Castillo
If Hanley Ramirez is the ultimate wild card, then Castillo is the ultimate enigma. The starting right field job is his to begin the season if he stays healthy. Whether or not he'll be effective, that remains to be seen. He has the talent to play in the majors. It'll be interesting to see if he can hold up and be effective for a full season.
Odds to make the team - Lock
9. Jackie Bradley Jr
The defensive wizard will start the year in the outfield, whether his bat shows up is the question. At worst, he'll be a late inning defensive replacement but if he can keep above .240, he'll start for sure. He'll be on the roster no matter what, but if he can keep more runs from scoring than he can drive in himself, they'll take it.
Odds to make the team - Lock
10. Chris Young
The lefty bashing Young is insurance in case Bradley, Betts or Castillo goes down or is ineffective. Otherwise, he's the perfect pinch hitter/spot starter they haven't had since Mike Carp left town. Bench strength is key when making a deep post-season run and he can help big time.
Odds to make the team - Lock
11. Brock Holt
The Hitman resumes his role as 6th Man for the third straight season. If someone gets hurt or needs a day off, Holt gets plugged in and usually goes 2 for 3. They'll need the depth for sure if the Sox plan to make a post-season run. He can play anywhere and do everything.
Odds to make the team - Lock
12. Ryan Hanigan
When in the lineup, he found ways to get on base which is all you could ask for out of a backup catcher. He doesn't have the power stroke of Doug Mirabelli or the cannon arm of Vazquez, but he calls a good game and doesn't make mistakes. The Sox will look to see if Vazquez can regain his cannon arm before bringing him back up, but for now it looks like Hanigan will back up Swihart to begin the season.
Odds to make the team - Lock
13. Travis Shaw
The power hitting first baseman would be starting anywhere else in the majors, unfortunately he has Hanley Ramirez in his way. After the Sox moved on from Mike Napoli last year, Shaw took the reigns at first and delivered big time. Most Sox fans are hoping management keeps Hanley Ramirez on a short leash so Shaw can take over if he's terrible at first. Shaw has proven he can hit major league pitching, so he'll be chomping at the bit to play every day.
Odds to make the team - Lock
14. Sandy Leon
Last year's catching situation got out of hand when both Christian Vazquez and Ryan Hanigan got hurt. The light hitting Leon held the fort until Blake Swihart came up. Leon wasn't very good at the plate but was decent calling a game behind it. With the return of Vazquez and the rise of Swihart, Leon is the odd man out. Only a injury would keep him around.
Odds to make the team - Long
15. Allen Craig
An all-star in 2013, his career has gone completely down the tubes. He spent most of the 2015 season in Pawtucket and didn't light it up down there either. With the addition of Chris Young and the rapid development of Betts and Shaw, Craig's importance continued to diminish. There's still a place on the bench for the 25th man and Craig will need to hit the lights out in order to obtain it. Otherwise, he'll be back in Pawtucket.
Odds to make the team - Long
16. Deven Marrero
The home grown shortstop won't be able to displace Bogaerts at shortstop but he has a shot to be the 25th man with a strong spring training. The bench is mostly set with Young, Shaw, Holt and Hanigan but they always need one more guy, Marrero will have to fight off a host of foes, but he's a defensive wizard. His glove will be needed down the road.
Odds to make the team - Long
17. Sam Travis
A rising prospect in the ranks, Travis made the jump from Lowell all the way to Portland in a few years. His chances to make the team are slim although a good showing should get him promoted to Pawtucket in no time. If the Hanley Ramirez experience fails and god forbid Travis Shaw gets hurt, Sam could be pressed into duty. Until then, he'll be in Portland and Pawtucket continuing to develop.
Odds to make the team - No chance in hell
18. Josh Rutledge
After Hanley Ramirez got hurt, Brock Holt was pressed into every day duty. This opened the door for Rutledge to take Brock's place as 6th man. Rutledge filled in admirably in 2015, but this year, the Sox have added depth all around. Rutledge will have to contend with Marrero, Craig, Leon and others to win the 25th man spot. A major spring would give him the inside track.
Odds to make the team - Long
19. Bryce Brentz
A former top prospect, injuries and ineffectiveness diminished the bright star of Brentz. Now 27, its now or never for Brentz. The outfield is always crowded with Bradley, Betts, Castillo and Young and the infield is crowded with Sandoval, Bogaerts, Pedroia, Ramirez, Shaw and Holt. He'll need to have the spring training of his life in order to nab the 25th spot. Otherwise, its back to Pawtucket for Brentz.
Odds to make the team - Long
20. Chris Dominguez
The Sox picked the 29 year old off the scrap heap from the Reds after spending 5 years in the minors. He brings infield depth but the Sox already have a host of infielders in the majors and minors that are ahead of him. He could be a veteran presence in Pawtucket but he'd need the spring training of his life to win the 25th man spot.
Odds to make the team - No chance in hell
21. Marco Hernandez
The 23 year old could be a steal after they got him from the Cubs farm system. He bounced between Portand and Pawtucket last year. He could make a splash in Portland or Pawtucket this season but that's about it. The depth at infield in the major levels is too much to overcome this season.
Odds to make the team - No chance in hell
22. Ryan LaMarre
Another possible Pawtucket starter was signed for depth in case the injury bug strikes. He most likely is playing for a contract for another team since he made his major league debut with the Reds last season. A good spring training could get him a shot somewhere else.
Odds to make the team - No chance in hell
23. Brennan Boesch
Another free agent pickup who's possibly playing for a spot somewhere else. It would take a miracle for him to beat out Young, Holt, Rutledge or some of the other prospects for the 25th and final spot.
Odds to make the team - No chance in hell
24. Christian Vazquez
The flamethrowing catcher suffered the worst possible injury in spring training last year, a fractured throwing elbow that required Tommy-John surgery. Can his surgically repaired arm withstand the stress of catching at the major league level? If so, he would be an outstanding dynamic to Blake Swihart. The starting job was his to lose last year and now he has to start the year in Pawtucket just to prove he's healthy. If his arm is back to where it was in 2014, he and Swihart could be a tag-team for the ages. Normally a lock to make the roster, its already set in stone he'll start the year in the minors.
Odds to make the team - No chance in hell
25. Ali Solis
The career minor leaguer will be battling Christian Vazquez, Dan Butler and Matt Spring for the Pawtucket Red Sox catching job more so than competing with Blake Swihart and Ryan Hanigan for the Boston position. Good luck there.
Odds to make the team - No chance in hell
26. David Price
The biggest free agent signing of the off-season was for the bonafide ace of the Rays/Tigers/Jays. Barring injury, he should have a 17-20 win season easily. He's just the guy they needed since Jon Lester was traded.
Odds to make the team - Lock
27. Clay Buchholz
For all the negativity surrounding his yearly injury woes, there's no denying the success he's had when healthy. He nearly led the league in ERA in 2010 and was the ace of the Red Sox from April to June of 2013. Unfortunately he just can't stay healthy. He's never tossed 200 innings in his career and at his rising age, it doesn't appear likely he ever will. Still, he'll be on the team for sure, just for how long is the question
Odds to make the team - Lock
28. Rick Porcello
Last year's "ace" had a miserable season when the pressure was on him. He managed to rebound in late August and September when the pressure was off. Hopefully the addition of Price and the return of Clay Buchholz (initially anyway) will take the pressure off him to be the leader. Hopefully we'll see the September Porcello and not the April-July one.
Odds to make the team - Lock
29. Joe Kelly
Talk about a smokescreen. Joe Kelly was 3-6 last season when he was demoted to Pawtucket where he had a "revelation" while he was there. Whatever he did, it worked. He was arguably the best pitcher in baseball in the final two months, going 7-1 to finish the season. So which Kelly is the real Kelly? The one who struggled against American League pitching or the one who dominated American League pitching? Sox fans hope its the latter.
Odds to make the team - Lock
30. Eduardo Rodriguez
Last year's top rookie lived up to his billing of why he was the Baltimore Orioles number 3 rated prospect in 2014. He won 10 games before being shut down due to wear and tear. He ranged between terrible and unhittable, with the reason for being terrible discovered to be tipping his pitches. If Rodriguez has corrected that, a full season of talent could lead to at least 15 wins.
Odds to make the team - Lock
31. Brandon Workman
The forgotten man after his miserable 2014 season and missing most of last year due to Tommy John surgery. His rehab template says he'll be back in June. That means he's a wash for spring training. If he can return to the form he displayed in the 2013 post-season, he'll be a great, low risk addition if he's ever brought back up.
Odds to make the team - No chance in hell
32. Roenis Elias
The throw-in of the Wade Miley trade may be better than people think. He posted numbers similar to Miley last year and is younger than him. Behind an offense that produces, he could be a decent spot-starter or at worst, a long reliever. He'll be in a battle with Steven Wright and Henry Owens as the "next man up" if someone gets hurt or is ineffective.
Odds to make the team - Good
33. Henry Owens
Owens has risen through the ranks of the Sox system the past two years and finally made the big leagues in 2015. The lanky lefty showed some promise while he was up, reminding fans of a young Jon Lester. Owens will turn 24 in July and this could have a breakout year if circumstances allow it to happen. With the starting 5 a virtual lock barring injury, he most likely will be Pawtucket's ace to begin the season for the second straight year. If he starts the year off great, the Sox will have no choice but to bring him up.
Odds to make the team - Long
34. Edwin Escobar
Escobar was one of the bright spots on the 2014 Governor's Cup Champion Pawtucket Red Sox...but that was Triple A. Success hasn't followed him to the majors yet but it could be right around the corner. With all 4 of last year's starters ready to return on paper, Escobar most likely will join Henry Owens as the top two starters in Pawtucket to begin the season. Either that or he'll have to battle steven Wright for the long relief role.
Odds to make the team - Long
35. Koji Uehara
Boston's closer the past 3 seasons returns to the set-up role where he began in 2013. After suffering a freak injury that ended his season, the 41 year old looks as spry as ever coming into this season. Father Time is undefeated but Koji is giving him a hell of a chase. Without the burden of closing, Koji now teams with Junichi Tazawa as the set-up men. Asking him to be as lights out as he was from 2013-14 at 41 may be asking too much, but if it happens, it'll be very hard to beat this team in the late innings. Also, he got the closer's job after both Andrew Bailey and Joel Hanrahan went down. If anything happens to Craig Kimbrell, Uehara is right there ready to fill in.
Odds to make the team - Lock
36. Craig Kimbrell
The centerpiece of the San Diego trade that sent Javier Guerra and Manny Margot to the Padres. He's a legitimate closer that has been lights out in the National League the past few seasons. If that success comes with him to Boston, the quartet of Tazawa, Carson Smith, Uehara and himself will be very tough to beat. If he can stay healthy and produce, he'll be the fireballing closer the team has lacked since Jon Papelbon left town
.
Odds to make the team - Lock
37. Junichi Tazawa
Taz has been a rock in the bullpen since 2012 but a heavy workload did a number on him last year. A full off-season of rest and the additions of Carson Smith and Craig Kimbrell greatly lightened the load. If those two plus Koji Uehara are effective, Tazawa will return to his 2012-14 form which is bad news for the American League.
Odds to make the team - Lock
38. Carson Smith
The centerpiece of the Wade Miley trade, Smith was one of the top set-up men in the American League for Seattle last season. He tossed 70 innings, struck out 92 and posted a 2.31 ERA. Of course, pitching in the airport out in Seattle is far different than the bandbox in Boston. Still, he was brought in to lighten the load on Uehara and Tazawa and if he does, they'll be a deadly late inning team that rivals the Yankees.
Odds to make the team - Lock
39. Anthony Vavaro
Injuries cut short his 2015 season and he looks to bounce back this season. Unfortunately for him, the Sox appear loaded in the back end of the bullpen. Vavaro could be pitching for a contract with another team or may have to settle for a long relief role. A very strong spring training will decide which.
Odds to make the team - Long
40. Heath Hembree
Pawtucket's de facto closer will most likely return to that role this season since the back end of the Boston bullpen will be loaded going into the season. Still, injuries and ineffectiveness lurk around every corner. He could be brought up at any time if he's not there already.
Odds to make the team - Long
41. Robbie Ross Jr
When the Red Sox traded Anthony Raunado for Ross before last spring training, I was not happy. By the end of the season, I now see why the trade was made. Ranaudo has yet to make an impact in Texas while Sox managers John Farrell and Torey Luvello turned Ross into their lefty specialist. Ross will battle with Tommy Layne for the specialist job and that kind of competition is always a good thing. Due to his younger age, it looks like Ross Jr will win the battle. He could be their Mike Myers this season.
Odds to make the team - Great
42. Tommy Layne
A bright surprise in 2014, Layne fought injuries to remain as the lefty specialist in 2015. With the back end of the bullpen mostly set with Smith, Uehara, Tazawa and Kimbrell, Layne will most likely battle it out with Robbie Ross Jr for the lefty specialist role. He could very well win the battle, but it would be shocking if he didn't remain with the team in some capacity if he doesn't.
Odds to make the team - Good
43. Carlos Marmol
A late addition to the spring training roster, Marmol was picked up off the scrap heap to compete for a job in the crowded Boston bullpen. He may be pitching for a contract with someone else if he doesn't pitch lights out. Still, he was a low risk signing so there's no shame if he doesn't work out.
Odds to make the team - Long
44. Danny Rosenbaum
Another scrap heap pickup like Marmol, he could be pitching for a job somewhere else. A great spring training may leapfrog him over Brandon Workman although the odds are unlikely. Still, its a great problem to have if you have too much pitching.
Odds to make the team - Long
45. Steven Wright
The knuckleballer is the odds on favorite to win the long relief role and given his success the past 3 seasons, it would be easy to see why. Still, he'll have to fight off Roenis Elias and Henry Owens unless the duo starts the year in Pawtucket. He may win out due to senority or by talent if the others falter
Odds to make the team - Good
46. Noe Ramirez
Ramirez finally made his big league debut last year after spending the past few seasons in Portland and Pawtucket. He would be a longshot to crack this bullpen but as with anything, injuries and ineffectiveness will factor in. He may start the year in Pawtucket but we may see him up sooner rather than later.
Odds to make the team - Long
47. William Cuevas
Now this guy is your classic fighter. He has posted average numbers his whole minor league career from Salem to Pawtucket, but here he is, in Boston's spring training roster. He's there just to see if he can compete with the big boys for awhile before being sent back to Pawtucket. If he continues to scrap, he make his debut sometime this season, especially in September.
Odds to make the team - No chance in hell
48. Kyle Martin
I could say the exact same thing about Martin as I said about Cuevas. He's there to get a taste of big league action before being sent back to the minors. Not much else can be said.
Odds to make the team - No chance in hell
49. Roman Mendez
Back with the Red Sox organization after being in the Texas system the past few years, he too is being given a quick look before being sent back to the minors. If anything he could contribute to another Governor's Cup run.
Odds to make the team - No chance in hell
50. Dan Butler
Back with the Sox organization after being in the Cubs system, Butler was apart of both of Pawtucket's Governor's Cup victories in 2012 and 2014. He made his debut with the Sox in 2014 as well. He won't be able to crack the catching tandem with Hannigan, Vazquez and Swihart in the way but he'll be around as an emergency.
Odds to make the team - No chance in hell
51. Sean O'Sullivan
The career minor leaguer is going to give Pawtucket some veteran depth this season, but that doesn't translate to big league success at all. In other words, up for a look, sent down during eventual cuts.
Odds to make the team - No chance in hell
52. Matt Barnes
The flamethrowing Barnes appeared to be turning the corner in 2014 but struggled mightily in 2015. Sox hope he can discover the flash that made him the top prospect chosen in 2011, but with so much competition, he may not make the team. He would be an attractive trade bait as well.
Odds to make the team - Long
53. Williams Jerez
Like Cuevas, Jerez hasn't posted earth shattering numbers but here he is, on the spring training roster. As with the others, he's up for a look and will be sent down during cuts.
Odds to make the team - No chance in hell
54. Brian Johnson
The one time member of the Triple Axe Attack (with Henry Owens and Keith Couch) that made Portland the best team in the Eastern League in 2014, he made his debut in 2015 before an injury cut short his season. Now healthy, he'll most likely start the season in AAA but if Buchholz gets hurt or if the other starters falter or get traded, Johnson will get a second chance to prove himself.
Odds to make the team - Long
55. Pat Light
After posting average numbers as a starter coming up through the minors, Light converted to the bullpen in 2015 and flourished for Pawtucket. He's an injury away from making his major league debut if his arm holds up. He'll start the year in Pawtucket and after that, we'll see how it goes.
Odds to make the team - No chance in hell.
